histories-第31章

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private　enterprises　men　may　advance　or　recede；　and　presume　more　or



less　upon　fortune　as　they　may　choose；　whereas　they　who　aim　at　empire



have　no　alternative　between　the　highest　success　and　utter　downfall。



　　The　strength　of　the　army　of　Germany；　with　which　as　a　military　man　he



was　well　acquainted；　was　continually　before　his　eyes。　He　reflected



that　his　own　legions　were　wholly　without　experience　of　a　civil　war；



that　those　of　Vitellius　had　been　victorious；　and　that　among　the



conquered　there　was　more　dissatisfaction　than　real　strength。　Civil



strife　had　shaken　the　fidelity　of　the　Roman　soldiery；　and　danger　was



to　be　apprehended　from　individuals。　What　would　be　the　use　of



infantry　and　cavalry；　should　one　or　two　men　seek　the　prize　with



which　the　enemy　would　be　ready　to　reward　a　prompt　act　of　treason？　It



was　thus　that　Scribonianus　had　fallen　in　the　days　of　Claudius；　and　his



murderer；　Volaginius；　had　been　raised　from　the　ranks　to　the　highest



military　command。　It　was　easier　to　move　the　hearts　of　the　multitude



than　to　avoid　the　single　assassin。



　　Though　staggered　by　these　apprehensions；　he　was　confirmed　in　his



purpose　by　others　among　the　legates　and　among　his　own　friends；　and



particularly　by　Mucianus；　who；　after　many　conversations　with　him　in



private；　now　publicly　addressed　him　in　the　following　terms：　〃All　who



enter　upon　schemes　involving　great　interests；　should　consider



whether　what　they　are　attempting　be　for　the　advantage　of　the　State；



for　their　own　credit；　easy　of　accomplishment；　or　at　any　rate　free　from



serious　difficulty。　They　must　also　weigh　the　circumstances　of　their



adviser；　must　see　whether　he　will　follow　up　his　advice　by



imperilling　himself；　and　must　know　who；　should　fortune　prosper　the



undertaking；　is　to　have　the　highest　honours。　I　invite　you；



Vespasian；　to　a　dignity　which　will　be　as　beneficial　to　the　State；　as



it　will　be　honourable　to　yourself。　Under　heaven　this　dignity　lies



within　your　reach。　And　do　not　dread　what　may　present　the　semblance



of　flattery。　To　be　chosen　successor　to　Vitellius　would　be　more　of　an



insult　than　a　compliment。　It　is　not　against　the　vigorous　intellect



of　the　Divine　Augustus；　it　is　not　against　the　profound　subtlety　of　the



aged　Tiberius；　it　is　not　even　against　the　house　of　Caius；　Claudius；　or



Nero；　established　by　a　long　possession　of　the　Empire；　that　we　are



rising　in　revolt。　You　have　already　yielded　to　the　prestige　even　of



Galba's　family。　To　persist　in　inaction；　and　to　leave　the　State　to



degradation　and　ruin；　would　look　like　indolence　and　cowardice；　even



supposing　that　servitude　were　as　safe　for　you　as　it　would　be　infamous。



The　time　has　gone　by　and　passed　away　when　you　might　have　endured　the



suspicion　of　having　coveted　Imperial　power。　That　power　is　now　your



only　refuge。　Have　you　forgotten　how　Corbulo　was　murdered？　His



origin；　I　grant；　was　more　illustrious　than　ours；　yet　in　nobility　of



birth　Nero　surpassed　Vitellius。　The　man　who　is　afraid　sees　distinction



enough　in　any　one　whom　he　fears。　That　an　Emperor　can　be　created　by　the



army；　Vitellius　is　himself　a　proof；　who；　though　he　had　seen　no　service



and　had　no　military　reputation；　was　raised　to　the　throne　by　the



unpopularity　of　Galba。　Otho；　who　was　overcome；　not　indeed　by　skilful



generalship；　or　by　a　powerful　enemy；　but　by　his　own　premature　despair；



this　man　has　made　into　a　great　and　deservedly　regretted　Emperor；　and



all　the　while　he　is　disbanding　his　legions；　disarming　his　auxiliaries；



and　sowing　every　day　fresh　seeds　of　civil　war。　All　the　energy　and　high



spirit　which　once　belonged　to　his　army　is　wasted　in　the　revelry　of



taverns　and　in　aping　the　debaucheries　of　their　chief。　You　have　from



Judaea；　Syria；　and　Egypt；　nine　fresh　legions；　unexhausted　by　battle；



uncorrupted　by　dissension；　you　have　a　soldiery　hardened　by　habits　of



warfare　and　victorious　over　foreign　foes；　you　have　strong　fleets；



auxiliaries　both　horse　and　foot；　kings　most　faithful　to　your　cause；



and　an　experience　in　which　you　excel　all　other　men。



　　〃For　myself　I　will　claim　nothing　more　than　not　to　be　reckoned



inferior　to　Valens　and　Caecina。　But　do　not　spurn　Mucianus　as　an



associate；　because　you　do　not　find　in　him　a　rival。　I　count　myself



better　than　Vitellius；　I　count　you　better　than　myself。　Your　house　is



ennobled　by　the　glories　of　a　triumph；　it　has　two　youthful　scions；



one　of　whom　is　already　equal　to　the　cares　of　Empire；　and　in　the



earliest　years　of　his　military　career　won　renown　with　these　very



armies　of　Germany。　It　would　be　ridiculous　in　me　not　to　waive　my　claims



to　Empire　in　favour　of　the　man　whose　son　I　should　adopt；　were　I　myself



Emperor。　Between　us；　however；　there　will　not　be　an　equal



distribution　of　the　fruits　of　success　or　failure。　If　we　are



victorious。　I　shall　have　whatever　honour　you　think　fit　to　bestow　on



me；　the　danger　and　the　peril　we　shall　share　alike；　nay；　I　would　rather



have　you；　as　is　the　better　policy；　direct　your　armies；　and　leave　to　me



the　conduct　of　the　war　and　the　hazards　of　battle。　At　this　very



moment　a　stricter　discipline　prevails　among　the　conquered　than　among



the　conquerors。　The　conquered　are　fired　to　valour　by　anger；　by　hatred；



by　the　desire　of　vengeance；　while　the　conquerors　are　losing　their



energy　in　pride　and　insolence。　War　will　of　itself　discover　and　lay



open　the　hidden　and　rankling　wounds　of　the　victorious　party。　And；



indeed；　your　vigilance；　economy；　and　wisdom；　do　not　inspire　me　with



greater　confidence　of　success　than　do　the　indolence；　ignorance；　and



cruelty　of　Vitellius。　Once　at　war；　we　have　a　better　cause　than　we



can　have　in　peace；　for　those　who　deliberate　on　revolt　have　revolted



already。〃



　　After　this　speech　from　Mucianus；　the　other　officers　crowded　round



Vespasian　with　fresh　confidence；　encouraging　him；　and　reminding　him　of



the　responses　of　prophets　and　the　movements　of　the　heavenly　bodies。



Nor　was　Vespasian　proof　against　this　superstition；　for　afterwards；



when　master　of　the　world；　he　openly　retained　one　Seleucus；　an



astrologer；　to　direct　his　counsels；　and　to　foretell　the　future。　Old



omens　now　recurred　to　his　thoughts。　A　cypress　tree　of　remarkable



height　on　his　estate　had　suddenly　fallen；　and　rising　again　the



following　day　on　the　very　same　spot；　had　flourished　with　majestic



beauty　and　even　broader　shade。　This；　as　the　Haruspices　agreed；　was



an　omen　of　brilliant　success；　and　the　highest　distinction　seemed



prophesied　to　Vespasian　in　early　youth。　At　first；　however；　the　honours



of　a　triumph；　his　consulate；　and　the　glory　of　his　victories　in　Judaea；



appeared　to　have　justified　the　truth　of　the　omen。　When　he　had　won



these　distinctions；　he　began　to　believe　that　it　portended　the　Imperial



power。　Between　Judaea　and　Syria　is　Mount　Carmel；　this　is　the　name　both



of　the　mountain　and　the　Deity。　They　have　no　image　of　the　god　nor　any



temple；　the　tradition　of　antiquity　recognises　only　an　altar　and　its



sacred　association。　While　Vespasian　was　there　offering　sacrifice　and



pondering　his　secret　hopes；　Basilides　the　priest；　after　repeated



inspections　of　the　entrails；　said　to　him；　〃Whatever　be　your



purposes；　Vespasian；　whether　you　think　of　building　a　house；　of



enlarging　your　estate；　or　augmenting　the　number　of　your　slaves；



there　is　given　you　a　vast　habitation；　boundless　territory；　a　multitude



of　men。〃　These　obscure　intimations　popular　rumour　had　at　once　caught



up；　and　now　began　to　interpret。　Nothing　was　more　talked　about　by　the



common　people。　In　Vespasian's　presence　the　topic　was　more　frequently



discussed；　because　to　the　aspirant　himself　men　have　more　to　say。



　　With　purposes　no　longer　doubtful　they　parted；　Mucianus　for



Antioch；　Vespasian　for　Caesarea。　These　cities　are　the　capitals　of



Syria　and　Judaea　respectively。　The　initiative　in　transferring　the



Empire　to　Vespasian　was　taken　at　Alexandria　under　the　prompt　direction



of　Tiberius　Al