wealbk01-第32章

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perhaps　twenty　or　thirty　per　cent　more　than　the　chance　is　worth。

In　a　lottery　in　which　no　prize　exceeded　twenty　pounds；　though　in

other　respects　it　approached　much　nearer　to　a　perfectly　fair　one

than　the　common　state　lotteries；　there　would　not　be　the　same

demand　for　tickets。　In　order　to　have　a　better　chance　for　some　of

the　great　prizes；　some　people　purchase　several　tickets；　and

others；　small　share　in　a　still　greater　number。　There　is　not；

however；　a　more　certain　proposition　in　mathematics　than　that　the

more　tickets　you　adventure　upon；　the　more　likely　you　are　to　be　a

loser。　Adventure　upon　all　the　tickets　in　the　lottery；　and　you

lose　for　certain；　and　the　greater　the　number　of　your　tickets　the

nearer　you　approach　to　this　certainty。

　　　　　That　the　chance　of　loss　is　frequently　undervalued；　and

scarce　ever　valued　more　than　it　is　worth；　we　may　learn　from　a

very　moderate　profit　of　insurers。　In　order　to　make　insurance；

either　from　fire　or　sea…risk；　a　trade　at　all；　the　common　premium

must　be　sufficient　to　compensate　the　common　losses；　to　pay　the

expense　of　management；　and　to　afford　such　a　profit　as　might　have

been　drawn　from　an　equal　capital　employed　in　any　common　trade。

The　person　who　pays　no　more　than　this　evidently　pays　no　more　than

the　real　value　of　the　risk；　or　the　lowest　price　at　which　he　can

reasonably　expect　to　insure　it。　But　though　many　people　have　made

a　little　money　by　insurance；　very　few　have　made　a　great　fortune；

and　from　this　consideration　alone；　it　seems　evident　enough　that

the　ordinary　balance　of　profit　and　loss　is　not　more　advantageous

in　this　than　in　other　common　trades　by　which　so　many　people　make

fortunes。　Moderate；　however；　as　the　premium　of　insurance　commonly

is；　many　people　despise　the　risk　too　much　to　care　to　pay　it。

Taking　the　whole　kingdom　at　an　average；　nineteen　houses　in

twenty；　or　rather　perhaps　ninety…nine　in　a　hundred；　are　not

insured　from　fire。　Sea　risk　is　more　alarming　to　the　greater　part

of　people；　and　the　proportion　of　ships　insured　to　those　not

insured　is　much　greater。　Many　fail；　however；　at　all　seasons；　and

even　in　time　of　war；　without　any　insurance。　This　may　sometimes

perhaps　be　done　without　any　imprudence。　When　a　great　company；　or

even　a　great　merchant；　has　twenty　or　thirty　ships　at　sea；　they

may；　as　it　were；　insure　one　another。　The　premium　saved　upon　them

all　may　more　than　compensate　such　losses　as　they　are　likely　to

meet　with　in　the　common　course　of　chances。　The　neglect　of

insurance　upon　shipping；　however；　in　the　same　manner　as　upon

houses；　is；　in　most　cases；　the　effect　of　no　such　nice

calculation；　but　of　mere　thoughtless　rashness　and　presumptuous

contempt　of　the　risk。

　　　　　The　contempt　of　risk　and　the　presumptuous　hope　of　success

are　in　no　period　of　life　more　active　than　at　the　age　at　which

young　people　choose　their　professions。　How　little　the　fear　of

misfortune　is　then　capable　of　balancing　the　hope　of　good　luck

appears　still　more　evidently　in　the　readiness　of　the　common

People　to　enlist　as　soldiers；　or　to　go　to　sea；　than　in　the

eagerness　of　those　of　better　fashion　to　enter　into　what　are

called　the　liberal　professions。

　　　　　What　a　common　soldier　may　lose　is　obvious　enough。　Without

regarding　the　danger；　however；　young　volunteers　never　enlist　so

readily　as　at　the　beginning　of　a　new　war；　and　though　they　have

scarce　any　chance　of　preferment；　they　figure　to　themselves；　in

their　youthful　fancies；　a　thousand　occasions　of　acquiring　honour

and　distinction　which　never　occur。　These　romantic　hopes　make　the

whole　price　of　their　blood。　Their　pay　is　less　than　that　of　common

labourers；　and　in　actual　service　their　fatigues　are　much　greater。

　　　　　The　lottery　of　the　sea　is　not　altogether　so　disadvantageous

as　that　of　the　army。　The　son　of　a　creditable　labourer　or

artificer　may　frequently　go　to　sea　with　his　father's　consent；　but

if　he　enlists　as　a　soldier；　it　is　always　without　it。　Other　people

see　some　chance　of　his　making　something　by　the　one　trade：　nobody

but　himself　sees　any　of　his　making　anything　by　the　other。　The

great　admiral　is　less　the　object　of　public　admiration　than　the

great　general；　and　the　highest　success　in　the　sea　service

promises　a　less　brilliant　fortune　and　reputation　than　equal

success　in　the　land。　The　same　difference　runs　through　all　the

inferior　degrees　of　preferment　in　both。　By　the　rules　of

precedency　a　captain　in　the　navy　ranks　with　a　colonel　in　the

army；　but　he　does　not　rank　with　him　in　the　common　estimation。　As

the　great　prizes　in　the　lottery　are　less；　the　smaller　ones　must

be　more　numerous。　Common　sailors；　therefore；　more　frequently　get

some　fortune　and　preferment　than　common　soldiers；　and　the　hope　of

those　prizes　is　what　principally　recommends　the　trade。　Though

their　skill　and　dexterity　are　much　superior　to　that　of　almost　any

artificers；　and　though　their　whole　life　is　one　continual　scene　of

hardship　and　danger；　yet　for　all　this　dexterity　and　skill；　for

all　those　hardships　and　dangers；　while　they　remain　in　the

condition　of　common　sailors；　they　receive　scarce　any　other

recompense　but　the　pleasure　of　exercising　the　one　and　of

surmounting　the　other。　Their　wages　are　not　greater　than　those　of

common　labourers　at　the　port　which　regulates　the　rate　of　seamen's

wages。　As　they　are　continually　going　from　port　to　port；　the

monthly　pay　of　those　who　sail　from　all　the　different　ports　of

Great　Britain　is　more　nearly　upon　a　level　than　that　of　any　other

workmen　in　those　different　places；　and　the　rate　of　the　port　to

and　from　which　the　greatest　number　sail；　that　is　the　port　of

London；　regulates　that　of　all　the　rest。　At　London　the　wages　of

the　greater　part　of　the　different　classes　of　workmen　are　about

double　those　of　the　same　classes　at　Edinburgh。　But　the　sailors

who　sail　from　the　port　of　London　seldom　earn　above　three　or　four

shillings　a　month　more　than　those　who　sail　from　the　port　of

Leith；　and　the　difference　is　frequently　not　so　great。　In　time　of

peace；　and　in　the　merchant　service；　the　London　price　is　from　a

guinea　to　about　seven…and…twenty　shillings　the　calendar　month。　A

common　labourer　in　London；　at　the　rate　of　nine　or　ten　shillings　a

week；　may　earn　in　the　calendar　month　from　forty　to　five…and…forty

shillings。　The　sailor；　indeed；　over　and　above　his　pay；　is

supplied　with　provisions。　Their　value；　however；　may　not　perhaps

always　exceed　the　difference　between　his　pay　and　that　of　the

common　labourer；　and　though　it　sometimes　should；　the　excess　will

not　be　clear　gain　to　the　sailor；　because　he　cannot　share　it　with

his　wife　and　family；　whom　he　must　maintain　out　of　his　wages　at

home。

　　　　　The　dangers　and　hairbreadth　escapes　of　a　life　of　adventures；

instead　of　disheartening　young　people；　seem　frequently　to

recommend　a　trade　to　them。　A　tender　mother；　among　the　inferior

ranks　of　people；　is　of　afraid　to　send　her　son　to　school　at　a

seaport　town；　lest　the　sight　of　the　ships　and　the　conversation

and　adventures　of　the　sailors　should　entice　him　to　go　to　sea。　The

distant　prospect　of　hazards；　from　which　we　can　hope　to　extricate

ourselves　by　courage　and　address；　is　not　disagreeable　to　us；　and

does　not　raise　the　wages　of　labour　in　any　employment。　It　is

otherwise　with　those　in　which　courage　and　address　can　be　of　no

avail。　In　trades　which　are　known　to　be　very　unwholesome；　the

wages　of　labour　are　always　remarkably　high。　Unwholesomeness　is　a

species　of　disagreeableness；　and　its　effects　upon　the　wages　of

labour　are　to　be　ranked　under　that　general　head。

　　　　　In　all　the　different　employments　of　stock；　the　ordinary　rate

of　profit　varies　more　or　less　with　the　certainty　or　uncertainty

of　the　returns。　These　are　in　general　less　uncertain　in　the　inland

than　in　the　foreign　trade；　and　in　some　branches　of　foreign　trade

than　in　others；　in　the　trade　to　North　America；　for　example；　than

in　that　to　Jamaica。　The　ordinary　rate　of　profit　always　rises　more

or　less　with　the　risk。　It　does　not；　however；　seem　to　rise　in

proportion　to　it；　or　so　as　to　compensate　it　completely。

Bankruptcies　a