股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第15章
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o covers。doji shapes。like the dragonfly。and the hammer； in which the open and close are the same； as long as。the lower shadow is。of sufficient length。 Takuri shapes。are usually seen after the market has。experienced a substantial drop； and they represent an opportune buying signal； especially if they are acpanied by high volume （see Figure 4。9）。
A white takuri acpanied by volume （far greater trading volume than the previous day's） very likely marks。a bottom。 The reason for that is。quite simple。 Consider the psychology of investors。when a takuri is。formed。 If the market has。been in a prolonged decline； investors。begin to wonder why it hasn't stopped and when it eventually will。 The psychology flips。back。and forth between 〃Hurry up and stop already！” and 〃Could the market go down any farther？〃
In a situation like this； if the market opens。with more selling than usual； it means。that investors。have bee desperate and think。that the stock。will drop oven farther。 More people decide to dump their shares （cut their losses。and run）； so the price declines。 Other investors。see this。and jump aboard the selling bandwagon。 Once the desperation selling and dumping are over； however； few shares are left for sale； and even a small amount of buying will push the price back。up。 By the end of the session； the closing price is。at or very。near the open。 In other words； a takuri means。that all the sellers。have sold and there is。no more selling to e。 The bears。have seen their supply lines。cut； which makes。the bulls。stronger； and that is。why this。shape often means。that the market has。bottomed out
Hanging。Man。 The hanging man has。the same shape as。an ordinary takuri； but it's。a white candlestick。that occurs。at the top and is。often the precursor of a steep decline （see Figure 4。10）。 The name es。from the market wisdom that you'll end up hanging yourself if you buy on this。shape。 Here too； it does。not really matter whether the shape's。real body is。black。or white or whether it's。a doji or still a takuri。
The hanging man does。not appear often and so should be watched carefully when it does。 You're far less。likely to see a hanging man appear at the top than you are a takuri at the bottom or an inverted takuri at the peak。 Nor does。the hanging man generally appear by itself。
Once again； investor psychology explains。why this。shape indicates。a peak。 Unlike the takuri； in this。case the shape would appear at first glance to be bullish。 The bears。have been in charge and pushed the price down； but the bulls。were able to push it back。up during the day； and they appear to be quite strong。 But if the bulls。were really。that strong； they would have taken the sharp drop at the open； pushed back。up； and kept going quite a bit farther。 It's。a question of 〃Is。that all you can do？” If that is。as。far as。the bulls。can go； then they are weak。and about to be hung。
Shooting。Star and。Gravestone Shapes
Like the long lower shadow shapes； there are also shapes with long upper shadows； which are illustrated in Figure 4。11。 And like those with long lower shadows； long upper shadow shapes。indicate a top when they appear in a rising market and a bottom when they。appear in a falling market。 Similarly； it's。not that important whether the real body is。white or black； or whether the shape is。a doji； or whether there is。a slight lower shadow。 A long upper shadow isnsidered either a shooting star or a gravestone。
Shooting。Star。 When a shape with a small teal body （expressing the spread between the open and close） and a long upper shadow appears after a significant rise； it's。called a shooting star and indicates。a top。 In other words； until the previous。session； the rising trend was。moving along nicely and prices。were being bid up； but the bulls' supply lines。have now collapsed。 Traders。looking to buy have bought pretty much all they want and there are no more buyers。left； so the market has。peaked。
Gravestone。 Strictly speaking； a gravestone （Figure 4。12） is。a doji with a long upper shadow； and when it appears。near a bottom or after a sharp decline； it usually indicates。that the market has bottomed out。 As。with the shooting star； the gravestone can be interpreted more loosely to be any shape with a long upper shadow that appears。near a bottom。
The gravestone is。interpreted the same way as。a hanging man is。near the top。
The boars。have sold the stork。back。down but have been unable to break。very far through the low； which indicates that a bottom has。been reached。
The Logic Behind。the Shooting。Star and。Gravestone
In contrast to takuri and hanging man； these patterns have long upper shadows。and small or no real bodies （doji）。 If the real body is small； it is。a shooting star because the long upper shadow looks。like a et's。tail； if it’s。a doji； the shape is。called a gravestone because the long upper shadow looks。like a gravestone extending upward from the ground。 Both indicate reversal points。 Generally； a shooting star near the top indicates。that the price has。peaked； while a gravestone near the bottom indicates。that it has。bottomed out。 However； in practice； the distinction is。not that important。 What is。important is。the price movement in the next session； the same as。for a spinning top or harami。
If a shooting star appears。near the top of an uptrend and the next day produces。a large black。candlestick； it is。a shooting star on the eve of three rivers—and a decisive top signal； if it is。followed by an engulfing pattern （tsutsumi）； it is。also a top reversal signal because the stock。is。being 〃carried for the last time”。 Similarly； alter a downtrend； a gravestone followed by a three rivers。pattern would be a decisive bottom signal； whereas。an engulfing pattern means。that the stock。is being 〃picked straight up”。
Both upper shadows and lower shadows can indicate tops。or bottoms。 It's。more mon for a long lower shadow to appear after a downtrend than an uptrend； and likewise a long upper shadow is。more mon alter an uptrend than a downtrend。 In other words； a takuri is。more mon than a hanging man and a shooting star is。more mon than a gravestone。
Another classic。pattern near the top of a trend is。the dark。cloud cover （kabuse）。 This pattern often is。seen when the market is。in an uptrend and thought to be continuing upward but when it appears。near the top； it should be interpreted as a warning sign。 The inversion of a dark。cloud cover is。the piercing pattern （kirikomi） which appears。near the bottom and indicates。the market is。bottoming out。 Although they differ in their bullish and bearish indications； these patterns。have exactly the same psychology at work in their production。
Dark Cloudver
In this。pattern； a paratively。large white candlestick。is。followed by。a black。candlestick。that opens higher than the white candlestick's。close （higher than the top of its real body and resembling a dark。cloud on top of the white candlestick）。 If a large black。candlestick。is。formed near the top and extends。below the median price for the previous。day。 it usually indicates a reversal。 However； if the next day's。price exceeds。the black。candlestick's。high； the dark。cloud cover has。broken and the uptrend monly accelerates。 （Figure 4。13）
There are other variations。on dark。cloud cover； depending on the degree of coverage。 Some examples。include atekubi； sashikomi； and irikubi； but they can be considered to have the same basic。meaning。
A fairly convincing argument can be made about the formation of dark。cloud cover and the reason the psychological state among market participants。leading to it results。in the formation of a top。 Here's。what happens： The market is。in an uptrend； and a fairly large white candlestick。is。formed。 If the session closes。at or near the high； most people believe that there will be more gains。the next day because this。stock。still has。a long way to go。 If it does。indeed open higher the next day； it would not be unmon to think。that the bulls。will crowd in because their anticipation has。been confirmed。 In some cases； there is。a window or gap （see Figure 4。22） that is。opened and the price continues。to soar。 But what if that doesn't happen？ The stock。has gapped significantly higher； but at （or near） the high； it begins。to slide。 More investors。decide that this。must be the e
