股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第18章

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　confirm　the　top　and　be　a　selling　signal。　


Sakata's　Five　Tactics　
We've　examined　the　shapes。of　individual　candlesticks。and　binations。of　two　or　more。　Sakata…style　tactics。take　these　patterns。and　turn　them　into　techniques。　They　were　developed　by　Sakata's。celebrated　trader　Munehisa　Homma；　who　made　his。fortune　in　the　Edo…period　rice　market。　（One　song　from　the　time　goes；　“I　may　never　be　a　Homma；　but　maybe　I　can　be　a　lord”）。　
There　are　five　basic。stratagems。in　Sakata…style　tactics：　three　mountains；　three　rivers；　three　gaps；　three　soldiers；　and　three　methods。　There　are　many　variations。on　each。　We　will　look。at　some　of　the　more　mon　ones。　
Three　Mountains；　Inverse　Three　Mountains　
Three　mountains。（three　Buddhas）　indicates。a　major　peak。　The　market　has。peaked　and　fallen　three　times；　and　the　second　peak。was。particularly　high。　Thisrresponds。to　the　triple　top　or　head…and…shoulders。pattern　used　in　Western　charting　that's。also　considered　to　be　an　indication　of　the　top。　The　〃neckline〃　is。formed　by　connecting　the　low　points。of　the　three　valleys。　The　three　mountains。pattern　ispleted　after　the　third　mountain　is。formed　and　the　price　breaks　downward　from　the　neckline。　This。is。sometimes。called　three　Buddhas。because　of　the　resemblance　to　Buddhist　statuary—Syakamuni　is。often　flanked　by　two　bodhisattvas。　Traders。will　sometimes。refer　to　this。as。the　three　Buddha　top。　This　isnsidered　a　classic。topping　pattern；　especially。if　volume　declines。over。time　（as。the　chart　moves。to　the　right）　（see　Figure　4。31）。　

Inverse　Three　Mountain。Bottom　
In　the　inverse　of　three　mountains；　or　inverse　three　Buddhas；　the　mountains。appear　upside　down。　Like　three　mountains；　the　inverse　three　mountains。pattern　ispleted　only。after　the　price　breaks　through　the　neckline。　Once　it　does。so；　it　can　be　considered　a　buy。signal。　Alter　a　buy　signal　has。been　given；　the　neckline　is。the　target　for　any　reversals。（see　Figure　4。32）。　

Three　Rivers　
Three　rivers。indicates。a　small　white　or　black。candlestick。called　star；　or　indecision　line；　or　doji　（called　a　cross）；　between　large　white　and　black。candlesticks。　This。is。generallynsidered　to　be　an　indication　of　reversal。　If　the　market　has。had　a　significant　rise　and　then　produces。a　large　white　candlestick；　followed　by　a　gap　upward　the　next　day　to　produce　a　star　of　white　or　black。（or　cross）；　and　then　on　the　third　day　gaps。downward　to　produce　a　large　black。candlestick；　it　is　called　a　morning　star　（cross；　shooting　star）　on　three　rivers。and　is　a　selling　decision　line。　On　the　opposite　side；　a　large　black。candlestick。followed　by　a　gap　downward　to　an　indecision　pattern　in　the　form　of　a　small　white　or　black。candlestick；　or　cross；　with　a　large　gap　upward　to　form　a　white　candlestick　on　the　third　day　indicates。that　the　market　has。bottomed　out　and　is。a　buying　signal。　This。is　considered　a　classic。pattern；　indicating　either　the　peak。or　trough。　
It's。easy　to　understand　why　the　three　rivers　is。taken　to　signify　a　top　or　bottom　if　one　considers。the　process。of　its。formation。　The　market　has。experienced　a　strong　rise　and　produced　a　large　white　candlestick；　but　the　next　day　it　struggles。to　make　further　gains。or　actually　loses。a　little　ground。　It　is。indecisive；　and　this。indecision　followed　by　a　large　black　candlestick。on　the　third　day　shows。that　the　market　has。decided　to　turn　down。　The　downward　momentum　isnfirmed；　further　downward　pressure　is　exerted；　and　prices。drop　sharply。　In　other　words；　the　interpretation　is。basically　the　same　as。following　the　break。for　a　harami　pattern　（see　Figure　4。33）。　

Evening。Star/Evening。Cross　
An　evening　star　on　three　rivers。is。a　strong　signal　indicating　a　reversal　downward　when　it　occurs。in　the　process。of　an　uptrend。　When　the　market　is。stalled　or　trading　in　a　narrow　range；　the　proverb　says。to　〃look。for　abandoned　children。〃　There　may　be　times。when　the　window　is。closed　on　the　star　（pricing　at　the　gap　where　the　price　has　jumped　higher）；　but　this　pattern　ing　in　an　area　of　new　highs。is。a　precursor　to　a　fall　（see　Figure　4。34）。　
Morning。Star/Morning。Cross　
The　morning　star；　or　morning　cross；　is。the　inverse　of　the　evening　star；　or　evening　cross。　If　the　star　candlestick。represents。a　new　low；　it's。highly　likely。that　a　bottom　has。been　reached。　However；　a　star；　or　cross；　does。not　necessarily　indicate　a　bottom。　Confirmation　of　a　bottom　es。only　with　the　pletion　of　the　three　rivers。pattern　（see　Figure　4。35）。　
Three　Soldiers　
Three　soldiers。occurs。when　there　are　three　white　or　black。candlesticks。all　moving　in　the　same　direction。　Three　white　soldiers。is。a　pattern　of　three　white　candlesticks。that　do　not　open　higher　but　consistently　close　higher。　It’snsidered　a　precursor　to　a　major　uptrend。　The　inverse；　in　which　three　consecutive　black。candlesticks。produce　declining　highs；　is。called　three　black。soldiers。（also　three　black。crows）　and　predicts。a　significant　decline。　The　Japanese　have　traditionally　considered　the　crow　to　be　an　unlucky　bird；　and　the　black。of　the　candlesticks；　corresponding　to　the　black。of　the　crows；　is　considered　bad　luck。for　the　markets；　the　beginning　of　a　decline。　

On　the　other　hand；　three　white　soldiers。appearing　in　an　uptrend　signals。resistance　to　higher　prices。　If　the　white　candlesticks。bee　progressively　smaller；　the　soldiers。are　〃at　a　dead　end〃　and　the　market　is。likely　to　peak。　
Three　Black　Crows　
Three　black。crows。is。a　classic。indication　that　a　bear　market　has　begun。　This。pattern　occurs。in　an　uptrend　when　there　are　three　consecutive　and　contiguous。（no　gaps）　black。candlesticks。　It'snsidered　to　signal　the　start　of　a　prolonged　bear　market；　but　must　occur　at　a　relatively。high　point　for　the　pattern　to　hold。　Note　also　that　if　the　first　black。candlestick。gaps。upward；　it　is。an　osaekomi　pattern　and　a　buy　signal　（see　Figure　4。36）。　
Three　White　Soldiers　
This。pattern　is　the　inverse　of　three　black。crows；　or　three　black。soldiers。　It　monly。occurs。when　prices。have　been　sliding　downward　and　the　market　is。searching　for　a　bottom。　The　three　consecutive　white　candlesticks。are　relatively　small；　but　indicate　that　the　market　is。on　better　footing　and　has。bottomed　out。　The　bottom　isnfirmed　only　if　prices。do　not　fall　below　the　first　white　candlestick。（see　Figure　4。37）。　
Three　Gaps　
As。the　name　implies；　three　gaps　is。a　series。of　three　consecutive　gaps。　Market　wisdom　says。that　in　an　uptrend　you　should　*4sell　into　three　jumps。up；n　whereas。in　a　downtrend；　you　should　〃buy　on　three　poundings〃　because　this。often　signals。a　major　trough。　Pounding　refers。to　a　selling　climax　after　the　third　gap　downward；　because　the　bears。have　sold　all　they　have　to　sell。　
When　there　is。no　overlap　between　the　first　days。and　the　second　day's。candlesticks；　the　gap　between　the　two　is。referred　to　as。a　window。　If　a　trend　is。breaking　out　of　a　holding　pattern　（moving　significantly　in　either　direction　after　a　period　of　narrow　moves）；　market　wisdom　says。to　follow　the　break。　It's。generally　easier　for　the　market　to　move　in　the　direction　of　the　break。　The　holding　pattern　will　often　close　the　window　（actively　trade　at　the　gap）；　and　it　ismon　for　prices　to　return　to　their　original　levels。　This。isnsidered　a　turning　point　in　the　market。　The　occurrence　of　three　of　these　turning　point　gaps　in　a　row　is　considered　extremely　significant　（see　Figure　4。38）。　

Three　Methods　
The　legends。of　Munehisa　Homma　（and　there　are　many）　say　that　he　had　a　third　method　he　emphasized　in　addition　to　selling　and　buying：　resting。　If　the　market　is。trading　in　a　narrow　range；　frequent　buying　and　selling　is。unlikely　to　increase　earnings。　The　more　often　you　trade；　the　higher　your　costs。（in　the　form　of　trading　missions）　and　the　more　likely　you　will　take　a　loss。　It's。important　at　these　times　to　rest—and　knowing　when　to　time　your　rests。is。just　as。important　as　knowing　when　to　time　your　buying　and　selling。　
The　three　methods。pattern　shown　in　Figure　4。39　is。the　candlestickbination　that　tells。you　to　rest。　Three　methods　is。also　referred　to　as　three　rules。and　refers。to　the　three　choices。of　selling；　buying；　or　resting。　
In　the　top　pattern　of　Figure　4。39；　an　uptrend　has。produced　a　large　white　candlestick。followed　by　harami　patterns。（either　white　or　black）。　There　is。then　the　large　white　marubozu　that　exceeds。the　previous。high　to　form　a　classic。breakout　from　a　holding　pattern。　The　small　harami　patterns。indicate　a　break。in　the　ac