股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第21章

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


　exceed　the　midpoint　at　66。63　if　oil　is。going　to　fall　further　toward　50　in　the　intermediate　picture。　
All　three　charts—monthly；　weekly；　and　daily—should　be　given　consideration　before　forming　a　strong　opinion　about　a　market。　The　intraday　periods　of　greatest　interest　will　pare　time　ratios。of　one　to　four。　Weigh　the　evidence　in　each　time　horizon　independently。and　then　consider　any　conflicts。or　similarities。across。all　the　charts。　Within　each　time　horizon；　the　14…period　RSI　can　give　critical　information　about　the　position　of　the　market　now　relative　to　key　milestones。of　the　past　for　the　similar　time　horizon　under　review。　In　Figure　5。6；　showing　the　weekly　futures。data　for　crude　oil；　the　decline　into　November　2006　has。formed　an　RSI　displacement　equal　to　the　extremes。that　developed　in　2001。　The　character　in　2001　shows。a　W　formation　that　was。not　the　final　bottom。　A　bounce　developed　that　was。followed　by　a　decline　to　pivot　P。　This。was。the　start　of　the　major　rally。　
The　opinion　we　considered　from　the　daily　chart　that　a　bounce　up　should　then　lead　to　a　new　low　toward　50　is。an　ideal　scenario　that　fits。the　RSI　position　we　see　at　point　P　in　the　weekly　chart。　The　weekly　chart　is。an　inplete　decline；　adding　weight　to　the　earlier　scenarios。of　the　daily　chart　work。　
The　asterisks。under　the　40　zone　in　RSI　reinforce　the　RSI　range　guideline　that　bull　markets　often　hold　this。area　in　pullbacks。　Notice　that　the　market　then　produced　rallies。that　failed　to　let　RSI　exceed　65。　That　is。the　warning　to　take　notice　that　a　bull　market　is。shifting　into　a　bear　market。　
It　is。important　to　know　when　RSI　makes。a　new　extreme　displacement。　In　Figure　5。6；　the　RSI　held　the　support　level　near　15　from　2002　through　early　2006；　Old　horizontal　support　levels。will　be　retested　in　the　RSI。　Knowing　this。helps。paint　a　picture　that　a　swing　up　with　another　sharp　breakuld　be　the　setup　that　allows。RSI　to　diverge　by　holding　the　old　support　zone　near　45。　


Using　the　posite　Index　to　Detect　RSI　Divergence　Failures　
In　Figure　5。6；　the　two　Fs。over　the　RSI　momentum　extremes。highlight　one　of　the　weaknesses。of　RSI。　The　indicator　is。prone　to　fail　to　develop　divergence　to　the　price　data　at　key　market　reversals。　The　cause　of　this。failure　is。in　the　normalization　of　the　indicator　formula。　A　solution　is。to　couple　an　indicator　with　the　RSI　that　has。not　been　normalized。　The　posite　Index　is。a　formula　I　developed　to　identify　divergence　failures。within　the　RSI。　The　formula　is。protected　by　copyright　by　the　Library　of　Congress；　but　the　time　has　e　to　release　the　formula　because　it　has。unique　properties。that　traders。value。　The　formula　warns　when　RSI　is。failing　to　detect　market　reversals。so　that　the　trader　is。not　caught　by　the　change　in　trend。　It　has　been　used　in　all　financial　markets　and　time　horizons。for　more　than　twelve　years。　

The　posite　Index　was。developed　to　solve　the　divergence　failure　problem　in　the　RSI；　but　its。ability　to　provide　specific。horizontal。levels。of　support　within　the　indicator　adds。to　its。value。　The　posite　Index　takes。the　normalized　formula　of　RSI　and　removes。the　normalization　range　restrictions。　In　Figure　5。7；　the　divergence　to　RSI　in　the　posite　Index。is。seen　at　points。N　and　P。　The　formula　for　the　posite　Index　uses。an　embedded　momentum　calculation　with　a　short…term　RSI　smoothed。　The　concept　of　embedding　a　momentum　study　can　be　used　within　MACD　（moving　average　convergence/divergence）；　but　stochastics。should　not　use　thisncept　in　fast　formulas。　If　slow　％D　is。used；　thisncept　can　be　applied；　but　extensive　testing　is。remended；　as　this。is。not　how　I　used　the　formula　to　gain　confidence　under　fire　in　all　financial　markets。in　a　real…time　environment。　


Detrending　
Another　way　to　experiment　with　divergences。between　normalized　formulas。and　unrestricted　indicators。is。to　detrend　simple　spreads。between　moving　averages。　This。method　is。not　as。effective　as。the　posite　Index　for　detecting　RSI　divergence　failures；　but　the　spread　between　averages。has。properties。that　should　not　be　overlooked。　
In　Figure　5。7；　the　horizontal　lines。over　the　market　are　Fibonacci　confluence　levels　derived　from　multiple　Fibonacci　expansion　swings。　Selection　of　a　swing　from　price　low　to　high　defines。the　range　used　to　create　proportional　swings。of　61。8　percent；　100　percent；　and　
161。8　percent。　These　are　then　projected　from　a　subsequent　low　that　immediately　follows。the　range　selected。　Multiple　projections。derived　from　different　ranges；　but　projected　from　the　same　pivot　low；　developed　price　resistance　zones。at　84；　90；　92；　94。50；　and　97。12。　The　latter　confirmed　the　geometric。calculation　we　developed　in　Figure　5。3。　It　is。important　to　notice　the　spread　between　these　zones。　The　84　level　would　be　an　ideal　spot　for　oil　to　fail　in　a　consolidation　that　needs。a　plex　pattern　to　develop。　But　in　excess。of　84；　oil　would　run　quickly　toward　90；　because　there　are　few　lines。of　resistance　to　interfere。　It　bees。clear　that　we　need　to　monitor　momentum　indicators。at　these　key　targets。to　decipher　the　actual　path　oil　will　take　as。it　works。toward　97。　

In　Figure　5。8　the　monthly　chart　is。displayed　on　the　far　left；　with　the　weekly　and　daily　data　pared　in　the　middle　and　far　right。　The　oscillator　extreme　is。the　difference　between　two　averages。plotted　as。an　oscillator。　When　the　averages。cross；　the　oscillator　crosses　through　the　zero　horizontal　line。　Therefore；　the　spread　differential　between　the　averages。is　plotted　as。a　displacement　from　zero；　which　is。another　example　of　detrending。　The　three　time　horizons。are　alwayspared　together。　The　monthly　chart　displays。an　extreme　negative　displacement。　The　daily　chart　shows。it　is。neither　overbought　nor　oversold。　The　weekly　chart　might　be　suggesting　that　one　will　see　a　new　price　low　after　a　price　rebound。　The　reasoning　behind　this。opinion　is。that　a　new　momentum　extreme　developed　at　Y　and　we　should　expect　the　old　extreme；　at　X；　to　be　retested　in　the　future。　The　posite　Index　is。a　much　better　measure　of　this。type　of　retesting　pattern　into　old　lines。of　horizontal　support　or　resistance。　Such　a　retest　often　produces。a　new　price　low。　
Everything　we　monitor　its。analysts。should　contribute　to　our　inner　barometer　or　intuitive　gut　feeling。　It's。like　having　two　inner　poles：　One　pole　weighs。bullish　evidence；　the　other；　our　negative　pole；　measures。the　mounting　evidence　to　sell。　As。evidence　builds。on　one　side；　conflicts。can　develop　to　offset　the　results。　When　there's。a　conflict；　we　stand　aside。　This。balance　bees。the　art　of　technical　analysis。　All　that　we　do　should　contribute　to　our　sense　of　probability　based　on　the　historical　oute　of　our　technical　tools。　Therefore；　methods。that　provide　valuable　information　and　use　different　techniques。can　enhance　our　accuracy。　
Figure　5。9　shows。a　one…month　chart　for　the　3…month　Eurodollar　（bar　chart）　and　an　inverted　one…month　view　of　Brent　crude　oil　（line　chart）。　The　inverse　correlation　shows　periods。when　the　3…month　Eurodollar　would　lead　the　oil　market　or　provide　significant　divergence　to　raise　questions。about　the　relationship　between　these　two　markets。　As　in　2003；　when　a　highlyrrelated　or　inversely　correlated　market　is。leading；　it's。a　good　opportunity　to　examine　the　leading　market　to　gain　a　jump　on　the　market　of　real　interest　such　as。oil。　If　we　could　determine　the　calendar　window　when　a　market　turn　may　develop　in　the　leading　market；　it　would　offer　an　even　greater　advantage。　


W。D。　Gann　
Defining　the　dates。for　high…risk。market　reversals。can　be　done。　However；　the　methods　are　far　more　sophisticated　than　the　conventional　cycle　analysismonly　in　practice　today。　Markets。expand　and　contract　along　both　price　and　time　axes。　Most　people　use　fixed…period　cycles。in　which　a　constant　interval　is。sought　to　connect　market　price　lows。　This。is。a　method　that　depends。on　finding　a　correlation　after　the　fact　with　hope　it　will　repeat　in　the　future。　This。method　can　never　reveal　the　underlying　cause　of　the　cycle；　and　fixed…interval　cycles。cannot　contend　with　expansion　and　contraction　phases。within　the　market's。natural　progression。　
In　Figure　5。9；　a　time　study　has。been　added　to　this。intermarket　chart　to　introduce　the　cycle　analysis。of　W。D。　Gann　into　the　discussion。　The　analytic。work。of　W。D。　Gann　（William　Delbert　Gann；　1878…1955）　is。widely　misrepresented；　causing　much　confusion　for　students。of　cycle　analys