股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第3章

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r　shows。when　and　why。TD　bo's。more　conservative　approach　to　trend　exhaustion　can　help　an　investor　identity　low…risk　trading　opportunities。　He　also　presents。methods。to　tweak。both　these　techniques。to　make　them　more　aggressive；　methods。that　can　often　give　an　early　warning　of　a　trend　reversal。　
Nicole　Elliott　breaks。down　a　traditional　Japanese　technique　called　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo；　in　which　price　data　is　used　to　create　a　series。of　indicators。to　measure　the　strength　of　a　trend；　as。well　as。potential　support　and　resistance　areas。　This。trend…following　technique　is。used　heavily　by　Japanese　investors。and　has　grown　in　popularity　in　the　United　States。and　Europe。　Many　people　who　see　this。technique　for　the　first　time　are　overwhelmed　by　the　amount　of　information　the　chart　provides。　Elliot　does。an　exceptional　job　of　cutting　through　that　noise　to　explain　the　true　value　of　Ichimoku　charts。　
Yosuke　Shimizu　takes　us。through　the　world　of　candlestick。analysis　from　a　Japanese　perspective。　Many　of　you　may　have　heard　of　or　even　used　patterns。with　peculiar　names。such　as。〃abandoned　baby〃　or　〃hanging　man。〃　Shimizu…san　explains。why　these　names。are　used　and　how　they　can　add　great　value　to　your　investment　approach。　His。chapter；　translated　from　Japanese；　provides。original　insight　into　why　traders。have　used　these　techniques。for　centuries；　in　a　language　that　evokes　the　spirit　of　the　region。　
We　return　to　a　U。S。　perspective　with　Constance　Brown；　who　in　her　chapter　shares。with　us。her　powerful　charting　acumen。　Incorporating　Gann　analysis；　Fibonacci　retracements；　and　her　own　proprietary　indicators；　she　has。developed　a　sophisticated　methodology　for　trading　market　moves。more　effectively。　Brown　graciously　includes。the　formula　behind　her　unique　indicator；　the　posite　Index；　and　demonstrates　how　to　efficiently　bine　technical　approaches。　
David　Bowden　takes。us。to　the　Australian　markets。through　his。own　trading　experiences　using　Gann　analysis—a　series。of　technical　indicators。that　are　often　misunderstood　because　of　their　mystical　nature。　Walking　us。through　his。successes。and　failures。in　anticipating　tops　and　bottoms；　Bowden's。discussion　of　the　cyclical　nature　of　the　markets　is。a　rare　treat。　Reading　this。chapter；　you'll　rediscover　the　value　of　the　relationship　between　time　and　price　and　its　importance　in　market　fluctuation。　
Traditional　equity　investors。are　increasingly。including　options。in　their　portfolios。as。a　way　of　managing　risk。and　of　raising　returns。by　the　power　of　leverage。　In　his。chapter；　Bernie　Schaeffer　gives。a　well…written　overview　of　options。strategies。and　then　moves。on　to　analyzing　volatility　lo　identify　profitable　options　plays。　If　you’ve　been　considering　incorporating　options。into　your　investment　approach；　you'll　want　to　read　this。chapter　first。　
From　Europe；　we　have　Jeremy　du　Plessis。with　a　chapter　on　point　and　figure　charts；　which　are　frequently　used　in　futures。and　modities。exchanges。　Du　Plessis。shows。how　these　charts。have　evolved　to　better　identify　support　and　resistance　levels；　breakout　points；　and　price　objectives。for　any　market。　He　wraps。up　with　a　discussion　on　applying　conventional　technical　indicators。to　point　and　figure　charts；　a　concept　that　even　longtime　point…and…figure　devotees。will　find　pelling。　
Robin　Mesch　is。one　of　the　leading　experts。on　Market　Profile　。；　a　method　of　analyzing　the　distribution　of　trades。throughout　the　day　to　identify　where　supply　and　demand　will　e　into　play。　Investors。who　use　this。technique　are　familiar　with　how　price　action　often　forms。a　bell　curve　by。the　end　of　the　day。　Mesch　describes。how　to　apply　this。technique　to　price　spreads；　showing　how　anyone　trading　security　pairs　can　effectively。gauge　when　a　spread　is　poised　to　widen　or　lighten。　
We　conclude　with　Robin　Griffith’s。presentation　of　cycle…related　investment　strategies；　from　multiyear　and　seasonal　cycles。in　the　global　equity　markets。to　stop…losses；　scaling　trades；　and　money…management　techniques。　He　presents。his。ten　mandments。for　trading；　a　solid　guide　to　intelligently　tackling　the　game。　
The　title　Breakthroughs。in　Technical　Analysis：　New　Thinking　from　the　World's。Top　Minds。truly　captures。what　we　tried　to　acplish　in　bringing　the　insights。of　these　experts。together。　The　ten　contributors。are　among　the　leading　technical　analysts。in　the　world；　and　they　all　demonstrate　specific。techniques。they've　used　with　great　success。over　time。　Some　of　our　contributors。present　new；　techniques。that　they've　developed　or　refined　in　the　last　couple　years。　Others。take　methodologies。that　have　been　used　for　decades。and　show　how　they　can　be　adapted　to　today's。global　financial　markets。　Regardless。of　their　geographical　location；　professional　background；　or　preferred　trading　strategies；　these　experts。make　one　central　theme　clear　in　every　chapter：　Technical　analysis。is　a　vital　ponent　of　any　trader's。tool　kit。　An　informed　investor　is。defined　by　his。ability　to　incorporate　all　available　market　data　into　his。daily　trading　routine；　and。　most　important；　he　has。to　take　into　account　the　investor　psychology　inherent　in　price　charts。　
We　believe　this。book　is。a　useful　resource　for　identifying　techniques。that　can　add　tremendous。value　to　your　investment　strategy；　and　we're　convinced　that　you'll　enjoy　reading　it　too。　
—David　Keller；　CMT　February　21；　2007　New　York。
CHAPTER　1　


Drummond。Geometry：　Picking　Yearly　Highs　and。Lows　in。Interbank　Forex　Trading　
TED　HEARNE　
What　if　you　could　predict　the　yearly。high　and　the　yearly。low　in　a　major　currency？　If；　at　the　start　of　the　year；　you　could　have　a　definite　idea　where　the　high　will　form　in　the　Japanese　yen　or　the　Canadian　dollar　or　the　euro？　Or　if　you　knew　where　the　market　was。headed　many。months。ahead　of　time？　Making　an　educated；　accurate　forecast　of　next　year's。high　and　low　in　every　currency　is　surely　the　dream　of　every　trader　—　a　fantasy　of　omniscience　and　unlimited　power　over　the　markets。　
In　trading；　as。in　war　or　building　suspension　bridges。or　performing　transplant　surgery　or　creating　a　new　auto　design　or　any　plex　undertaking；　success。is。a　function　of　many。different　elements—a　bination　of　having　the　proper　tools；　the　necessary　knowledge；　and　the　appropriate　personal　characteristics。　If　you　would　like　to　be　one　of　the　few　who　make　accurate；　high…probability；　long…term　forecasts。about　market　highs。and　lows；　then　read　on；　because　there　are　some　little…known　tools。and　a　coherent　body　of　knowledge　that　can　help　you。　
Drummond　Geometry　
The　practice　of　technical　analysis。has。a　few　monly　accepted　assumptions。　Drummond　Geometry　builds。on　these　with　its　own　unique　point　of　view：　
1。　
Charts。have　patterns。that　can　be　identified　and　will　reoccur。　

2。　
Similar　chart　patterns。exist　in　different　time　frames。　

3。　
Prices。in　a　given　time　frame　will　center　on　a　consensus。value；　and　when　price　moves。away　from　that　consensus；　it　will　tend　to　revert　to　a　mean。　But　this。mean　itself　will　be　moving　and　changing　as。the　market　unfolds。　

4。　
Support　and　resistance　are　real　phenomena；　and　can　be　measured；　predicted；　and　projected。　

5。　
Time　frame　charts。are　interrelated；　move　simultaneously；　and　can　be　visualized　as。existing　within　each　other。　

6。　
Historical　price　charts。of　freely　traded　financial　markets。are　the　visual　representation　of　human　crowd　psychology　in　action。　

7。　
Support　and　resistance　in　different　time　frames。react　to　price　in　predictable　ways。　The　shorter　time　frames。will　react　first；　and　then　progressively　longer　time　frames。kick。in。　


These　statements。are　simple；　but　when　logically　applied　to　the　broadest　context；　using　a　coherent　set　of　analytic。tools；　the　implications。are　staggering。　The　trading　theories。and　methodology　I　discuss　here　are　based　on　the　writings。of　Charles。Drummond；　the　legendary。Canadian　trader　who　is。emerging　as。one　of　the　major。market　theorists。of　the　twentieth　century。　He　is。not　only　a　major　theorist　but　also　a　hugely　successful　private　trader　who　has　the　personal　track。record　to　back。up　the　theory。　
Drummond　s。substantial　body　of　writings；　privately　published　and　distributed　under　nondisclosure　agreements。to　his。growing　body　of　students；　constitutes。a　major　step　forward　in　technical　analysis。　Many　aspects。of　the　work。remain　proprietary　and　not　accessible　in　a　public。medium；　but　some　of　the　main　principles。