股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第33章

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Less。than　50　percent　of　analysts。rate　the　pany　a　buy　


This。screen　returned　28　names；　and　Figure　7。12　displays。a　subset　of　seven　names。　


Investors。often　fear　that　focusing　on　strongly。performing　stocks。on　which　expectations　are　modest　or　downright　low　might　generate　too　few　actionable　trading　ideas。　After　all；　they。argue；　stocks。that　have　been　clearly　outperforming　the　market　will　very　likely　have　attracted　significant　call　buying；　the　shorts。will　have　covered　their　positions；　and　Wall　Street　analysts。will　surely　have　fallen　in　love　with　them。　But；　in　fact；　such　low…expectation　situations。are　rather　plentiful；　as。negative　opinions。often　die　hard　despite　being　regularly　invalidated　in　strong　stock。performance。　And　the　bonus　for　buying　such　stocks。is。that　the　uptrend　is。unlikely　to　end　before　there　has。been　at　least　some　capitulation　by　these　skeptics。　
Just　how　persistent　a　negative　sentiment　backdrop　can　be　despite　powerful　price　action　is。illustrated　in　Figures。7。13　and　7。14；　which　show　the　performance　of　DirecTV　Group　（DTV）　and　Gymboree　（GYMB）；　respectively；　for　year…to…date　2006。　
As。of　late　2006；　DirecTV　had　gained　59。9　percent　in　2006　and　had　reached　an　all…time　high。　Yet　only　13　percent　of　Wall　Street　analysts。had　buy　ratings。on　the　stock；　short　interest　was。5。3　times。the　stock's。average　daily　trading　volume；　and　put　open　interest　exceeded　tall　open　interest　by　nearly。60　percent。　
GYMB　had　posted　an　83　percent　year…to…date　gain　for　2006　and　had　also　traded　at　all…time　highs。　But　there　was。80　percent　more　put　open　interest　than　call　open　interest　on　GYMB；　short　interest　exceeded　three　times　daily　volume；　and　just　40　percent　of　analysts。had　buy　ratings。on　the　stock。　

According　to　Humphrey　Neill—the　market　analyst　for　whom　I　have　the　greatest　respect　and　from　whom　I've　learned　the　most　over　the　years—in　his。classic。work；　The　Art　of　Contrary。Thinking；　“No　problem　connected　with　the　Theory　of　Contrary　Opinion　is。more　difficult　to　solve　than：　（a）　how　to　know　what　prevailing　general　opinions。are；　and　（b）　how　to　measure　their　prevalence　and　intensity。〃　
This。chapter　on　options…based　indicators。in　conjunction　with　other　relevant　sentiment　indicators。will　help　traders。attack。Neill's。admittedly　difficult　problem　and　lead　to　more　robust　trading　results。　Being　a　successful　contrarian　investor　is。not　about　buying　at　low　prices。and　buying　cheap　stocks：　the　successful　contrarian　investor　is。instead　a　buyer　of　low　expectations　on　strong　stocks。　In　fact；　as。Neill　states。in　The　Art　of　Contrary。Thinking；　“The　‘crowd’　is。most　enthusiastic。and　optimistic。when　it　should　be　cautious。and　prudent；　and　is　most　fearful　when　it　should　be　bold　


CHAPTER。8　
Point。and　Figure　Analysis：　Modern　Developments　in　an　Old　Technique　
JEREMY　DU　PLESSIS　
One　can　hardly　describe　the　point　and　figure　chart　as。a　〃breakthrough　in　technical　analysis”；　but　in　its。130…year　history；　this　measure　of　price　changes。has。had　many　breakthroughs。　That's。because；　unlike　other　chart　types；　point　and　figure　analysis。has。not　stood　still；　but　has。adapted　to　the　changing　times。and　technology。　Even　its。name　changed　during　its。early　development。　This。chapter　highlights。the　changes。to　point　and　figure　charts。during　their　first　one　hundred　years。and　discusses。the　new　thinking　and　interpretation　of　this。veteran　strategy。　

Point　and　Figure　Charts：　One　Hundred　Years　of　Change　
Point　and　figure　analysis。started　life　on　the　trading　floors。and　bucket　shops。of　the　late　nineteenth　and　early　twentieth　centuries；　where　traders。needed　a　method　of　recording　prices。　They　simply　wrote　down　the　traded　prices。in　columns；　a　rising　column　of　numbers。as。the　price　rose　and　a　falling　column　as　the　price　fell。　It　served　simply　as。a　price　record　and　ignored　any　fractions。　Eventually　traders。began　to　notice　patterns　in　their　price　records；　and　the　record　became　known　as。a　figure　chart。　
Writing　down　numbers。was。a　tedious。business；　so　traders。began　to　use　a　vertical　scale　and　inserted　Xs。instead　of　numbers。　The　resultant　chart　became　known　as。a　point　chart。　For　thirty　years；　figure　charts。and　point　chartsexisted；　with　chat　lists。referring　to　their　point　charts。and　their　figure　charts；　or　their　point　and　figure　charts；　the　name　we　use　today。　Figure　charts。were　eventually。dispensed　with　in　the　1930s；　and　in　the　late　1940s；　a　new　method　of　plotting　the　charts。was。proposed；　using　Xs。for　the　rising　columns　and　Os。for　falling　columns。　Figure　8。1　shows。this。evolution。　

The　plotting　method　has。not　remained　constant　either。　As。markets。and　data　availability。have　changed；　so　too　point　and　figure　construction　has。adapted　and　changed。　Originally；　point　and　figure　charts。were　constructed　from　the　tape　using　every　trade。　The　Xs。were　assigned　a　value—called　the　box　size—of　one　point；　and　any　price　change　less　than　one　point　was。ignored。　When　the　price　reversed　by　one　point；　a　new　column　was。started。　This　became　known　as。a　1…box　reversal　chart。　Because　these　charts。were　very　sensitive；　a　more　condensed　version　was。sought；　and　many　traders。transferred　the　data　from　their　1…box　charts。to　their　3…box　charts；　where　the　column　did　not　change　unless。the　price　reversal　had　the　value　of　three　boxes。　Some　even　drew　5…box　reversal　charts。to　show　the　longer…term　view；　although　these　are　rare　nowadays；　but　2…box　reversal　charts。are　popular。　Figure　8。2　shows。charts。drawn　with　four　different　box　reversals。　Notice　how　the　look。of　the　chart　is　transformed　as。the　reversal　is。changed。　

Originally；　all　these　charts。were　constructed　with　tick。data；　which　meant　that　the　trader　had　to　have　access。to　even　trade　every。day。　This。task。was。not　a　problem　for　anyone　updating　a　small　set　of　charts。by　hand　each　day；　but　it　was。an　impossible　one　for　anyone　who　wanted　to　start　a　new　chart　showing　five　years。of　tick。data。　In　the　late　1940s；　therefore；　
A。W。　Cohen　of　Chartcraft　proposed　a　new　construction　method　that　ignored　the　tick。data；　taking　instead　the　daily。high　or　low　to　construct　the　chart。　His。method　ignored　1…box　reversal　chartspletely　in　favor　of　3…box；　and　so　1…box　fell　out　of　favor。　Because　end…of…day　data　were　bring　used　to　construct　the　charts；　this　change　turned　point　and　figure　into　a　method　for　longer…term　analysis。　
Today；　end…of…day　point　and　figure　charts。are　constructed　with　either　the　high　or　the　low　at　the　end　of　the　day　（Cohen's。method）　or　with　the　close　at　the　end　of　the　day。　What's。more；　the　ability　of　puters。to　store　vast　amounts。of　data　has。allowed　charts。to　be　constructed　using　data　at　the　end　of　every　minute；　every　hour；　or　any　intraday　timeframe　desired。　Easy　access。to　tick。data　has。resulted　in　the　original　style　tick。point　and　figure　charts。making　a　eback。as。well；　although　it　is。still　not　practical　to　draw　a　five…year　point　and　figure　chart　using　tick。data　for　the　simple　reason　that　there　is。now　too　much　data　to　store。　All　these　changes；　however；　have　made　point　and　figure　charts。suitable　for　all　time　horizons；　from　very　short　term　to　very　long　term。　
With　the　popularity　of　3…box　reversal　charts；　many　mon　patterns　have　been　identified　and　named。　Space　here　precludes。a　full　discussion　of　point　and　figure　signals。and　patterns；　but　it's。important　to　note　that　they　are　mostly　based　on　breakouts。　If　a　column　of　Xs。rises。above　the　previouslumn　of　Xs。（see　the　3…box　chart　in　Figure　8。2）；　that　is。a　basic　point　and　figure　buy　signal。　If　a　column　of　Os　falls。below　the　previouslumn　of　Os；　that　is。a　basic。sell　signal。　All　point　and　figure　patterns。are　built　from　these　two　basic。patterns。　The　wider　they　are　and　the　more　times。the　price　reaches　the　equilibrium　level　before　breaking　out；　the　stronger　the　subsequent　signal。　Simple　patternsbine　to　make　more　plex。ones；　and　point　and　figure　analysts。always。look。to　see　whether　these　defined　patterns。exist　and　if　a　smaller　pattern　is。part　of　a　larger　one。　

Time　Horizons　
Before　describing　some　new　and　innovative　point　and　figure　techniques；　it's。important　to　review　how　time　horizon　works。in　point　and　figure　charts。　Changing　the　box　size　effectively　changes。the　time　horizon　of　the　chart　without　actually　changing　the　underlying　data。　To　understand　this；　imagine　you　are　day…trading　the　Dow　Jones。Industrial　Average。　Would　you　draw　a　point　and　figure　chart　w