股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第6章

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ice　designations。on　the　vertical　axis；　there　would　be　nothing　to　indicate　whether　you　were　looking　at　a　fifteen…minute　chart；　an　hourly　or　a　daily　chart；　or　a　weekly　or　monthly　chart。　By　now　you　can　guess。where　I'm　going　with　this：　it　could　also　be　a　quarterly　chart；　in　which　each　bar　represents　the　market　activity　in　one　quarter；　or　a　yearly。chart；　in　which　each　bar　represents。one　year's。market　activity；　or　an　even　longer…term　chart；　in　which　each　bar　represent　is。two　and　a　half　years'　activity；　or　five　years'；　or　ten。　On　each　of　these　charts；　we　can　see　trends；　congestion；　types。of　trading；　dot　pushes；　terminations；　and　so　forth。　And　on　each　chart　the　support　and　resistance　levels。can　be　projected　into　the　future。　
Why　is。this。useful？　A　moment's。reflection　will　make　that　clear。　If　we　can　project　resis…tance　and　support　on　a　yearly　basis；　then　we　have　an　advantage　in　predicting　and　monitoring　market　turns。in　those　areas。　It；　for　example；　we　can　determine　the　market's。yearly　high　or　low　in　a　major　Forex　market；　then　we　can　potentially　take　advantage　of　long…term　moves。with　immense　profits。built　into　them。　In　the　currency　markets；　with　the　eye…popping　400…to…1　leverage　available　even　to　small　traders；　very　large　profits。are　available。　
Let's。lake　a　look。at　some　charts。and　analyze　these　yearly　charts。and　their　shorter　time　frame　ponents—for　it　is。on　the　shorter　time　frames。that　we　will　first　see　the　evidence　of　the　yearly　low　or　yearly。high　setting　up　and　terminating　energy　in　support　and　resistance。　
In　the　tool　chest　of　Drummond　Geometry；　there　are　concepts。that　can　be　used　to　structure　many　different　kinds。of　trades。　I　will　detail　one　entry　signal　here　as。an　example；　so　that　we　can　follow；　a　sample　trade　on　the　long…term　chartsing　up。　In　Figure　1。6；　we　see　a　daily　chart　that　shows。what　we　call　an　〃exhaust〃　and　the　entry　signal　that　follows。it。　An　exhaust　is。a　market　move　of　very　high　energy　that　breaks　through　nearby　support　or　resistance　and　then　reverses；　much　like　a　column　of　water　in　a　fountain　that　has。been　pushed　up　and　then　tumbles。back。on　itself　when　the　energy　that　pushed　it　up　can　no　longer　hold　up　the　weight　of　the　water。　For　a　trader；　the　challenge　is。to　identify　that　exact　moment　when　the　push　that　sends。price　in　one　direction　or　the　other　has。exhausted　itself　and　the　retracement　has。begun。　Drummond　Geometry　offers。the　technical　tools。to　identify　this　phenomenon。　In　Figure　1。6；　we　see　this。pattern：　First　the　market　breaks。the　nearby　support　level　and　the　bar　closes。in　that　area。　Then；　in　the　following　bar；　the　nearby　support　area　holds。and　does。not　break。　This。pattern　is。an　〃exhaust　buy〃　signal；　and　we　will　see　many。examples。of　this。signal　in　the　following　chart　analysis。　

In　Figure　1。7；　we　see　three　price　charts。of　the　USDJPY；　which　show　how　Drummond　Geometry　sets。up　time　frame　correlation。　The　support　and　resistance　areas　from　the　longer　time　frame　chart　are　overlaid　on　the　chart　of　the　next　shorter　time　frame。　The　left…hand　chart　is。a　two…year　bar　chart；　in　which　each　bar　represents。two　years。of　activity。　The　large　arrow　shows。how　the　nearby　resistance　for　that　bar　is。overlaid　onto　the　chart　to　the　right；　which　is。a　one…year　bar　chart。　On　the　one…year　chart；　the　two…year　resistance　is。plotted　as。light　gray…bars。positioned　behind　the　one…year　price　bars。　Similarly；　the　nearby　resistance　and　support　areas。from　the　yearly　chart　are　overlaid　onto　the　quarterly　char　I　on　the　right…hand　side　of　this。figure。　At　this。point；　it　bees。clear　how　thisrrelation　of　time　periods。can　be　graphically　represented。　I　have　also　shown　on　this。yearly　chart　an　exhaust　buy　signal；　which　occurred　in　the　USDJPY　at　the　very　beginning　of　2005。　Although　the　time　frame　is。radically。different—one　year　bars。in　Figure　1。7　versus。the　daily　bars。of　Figure　1。6—the　technical　pattern　of　the　exhaust　trade　is。identical。　
In　addition　to　the　buy　signal　in　Figure　1。7；　I　have　marked　two　target　areas。for　this。long…term　trade。　How　do　I　establish　these　areas？　According　to　Drummond　Geometry　theory；　the　market　will　move　from　resistance　to　support；　and　when　it　reaches　support；　it　will　move　back。to　resistance；　and　that　pattern　will　occur　in　all　time　frames。　Resistance　and　support　will　either　be　weak。and　break。through　to　a　secondary　level　of　resistance　or　support；　or　they　will　hold　and　be　strong；　kicking　prices。back。in　the　opposite　direction。　

If　we　have　a　yearly　low；　then　what　is。the　target　for　this。currency？　Where　can　we　expect　it　to　go　on　a　yearly　basis？　The　yearly　target；　like　targets。in　other　time　frames。in　Drummond　Geometry；　depends。on　where　the　market　is。when　it　starts。　
If　the　price　starts。from：　
。　
far　above　the　envelope；　then　the　first　target　is。the　envelope　top　

。　
at　the　envelope　top；　then　the　target　is。the　other　side　of　the　envelope；　depending　on　what　happens。to　the　PLdot　

。　
inside　the　envelope；　then　the　target　is。the　other　side　of　the　envelope　or　lower　


In　the　case　of　the　yearly　chart　in　Figure　1。7；　because　the　close　of　the　price　bar　for　2001　was。near　the　envelope　bottom　as　projected　for　2005；　the　target　for　2005　will　be　the　PLdot；　and　if　that　breaks。and　the　market　continues。to　the　upside；　then　the　secondary　target　would　be　the　opposite　side　of　the　envelope　system。　Note　that　these　targets。are　determined　far　in　advance；　at　the　close　of　December　2001；　and　projected　out　for　2005。　
If　we　can　say　that　it's　likely　that　price；　once　it　goes　inside　a　channel；　will　go　to　the　PLdot　line　or　the　opposite　side　of　the　channel；　then　we　have　a　target　for　the　year。　And　when　the　market　gets。to　that　target；　then　we　reassess。and　make　a　judgment　about　the　market's。next　goal。　
Suppose　that　at　the　end　of　2004；　we　were　watching　the　U。S。dollar/Japanese　yen　exchange　rate　and　were　applying　Drummond　Geometry　analysis。to　the　market。　What　would　we　have　been　seeing？　Figure　1。8　（two…year；　yearly；　and　quarterly。charts）　and　Figure　1。9　（monthly　and　weekly　charts）　lay　out　the　basic。dynamics；　and　Figure　1。10　shows。the　exact　entry　points。on　a　daily　chart。　From　two…year　bar　charts。all　the　way　to　daily　charts—that's　quite　a　span。　But　each　contributes。to　the　total　picture　and　sets。up　a　pelling　case　for　a　major　market　turn　to　the　upside　starting　in　December　2004　and　January　2005。　

（These　last　chartsntain　a　lot　of　information　and　are　a　bit　difficult　to　render　in　the　black…and…white　formal　necessary　for　print　reproduction；　on　the　puter　screen；　however；　the　use　of　color　makes　them　easy　and　quick。to　read。）　
Here　is。a　breakdown　of　what　we　would　have　seen　by　applying　this。analysis：　
On。the　two…year　chart。　The　market　was。in　congestion　（successive　price　bars　were　dosing　on　opposite　sides。of　the　PLdot）；　and　the　PLdot　was。moving　sideways。across。the　page。　We　were　in　the　middle　of　two…year　nearby　support。　
On。the　one…year　chart。　The　market　was。in　a　trend　rundown；　with　the　next　anticipated　type　of　trading　being　congestion　entrance　to　the　upside。　We　were　a　long　way。below　the　yearly　envelope　bottom；　and　so　we　were　looking　for　a　move　back。up　at　least　to　the　envelope　bottom；　and　probably　to　the　yearly　PLdot；　and　possibly　to　the　yearly　envelope　top。　We　were　in　yearly　support　and　in　two…year　support；　with　a　significant　bias。for　a　move　to　the　upside。　In　January　2005；　we　would　be　watching　to　see　if　nearby　yearly。support　would　hold　and　bee　strong；　and　thus。flag　a　yearly　exhaust　entry。　
On。the　quarterly　chart。　We　were　in　yearly　support；　and　in　quarterly　further…out　support；　and　a　potential　exhaust　pattern　was。setting　up　for　a　strong　return　to　the　quarterly。PLdot。　In　the　first　quarter　of　2005；　we　would　have　been　monitoring　the　move　away　from　quarterly　nearby　support　to　validate　the　exhaust　buy　signal。　
On。the　monthly　chart。　On　the　left…hand　side　of　Figure　1。9；　we　see　exhaust　entry。signals。as。the　market's。downtrend　stalls。in　monthly；　quarterly；　yearly；　and　two…year　support。　Monthly　nearby　support　is。holding　and　is。showing　to　be　strong。　
On。the　weekly　chart。　On　the　right…hand　side　of　Figure　1。9；　we　are　again　seeing　multiple　exhaust　buy　signals。as。the　market　tests　support；　bounces。off；　es。back。for　a　retest；　and　then　starts　off　to　the　upside　with　more　conviction。　The　Drummond　Geometry。trader　can　take　action　on　these　exhaust　buy　signals　with　some　confidence　because　he　can　see　that　we