e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第101章
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Making the first prediction goes somewhat against our grain： We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good。 Even now； Charlie and I continue to believe that short…term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place； away from children and also from grown…ups who behave in the market like children。 However； it is clear that stocks cannot forever overperform their underlying businesses； as they have so dramatically done for some time； and that fact makes us quite confident of our forecast that the rewards from investing in stocks over the next decade will be significantly smaller than they were in the last。 Our second conclusion … that an increased capital base will act as an anchor on our relative performance … seems incontestable。 The only open question is whether we can drag the anchor along at some tolerable； though slowed； pace。
做出第一项预测有违我们的本性，一直以来我们认为股市预言家唯一的价值就是让算命先生看起来像那么一回事，即便是现在，查理跟我还是相信短期股市的预测是毒药，应该要把他们摆在最安全的地方，远离儿童以及那些在股市中的行为像小孩般幼稚的投资人，虽然有时股市的表现会有相当大的起伏，然而很明显的股市的表现不可能永远都能超越其背后所代表的企业，这也是为何我们胆敢预测未来十年投资人在股市所获得的报酬将很难再像过去十年那样的优异的原因。我们第二点结论，规模越来越大的资金将会拖累我们的绩效，对于这点倒是不容置疑，唯一的问题在于我们拖着这样的重担的同时，如何还能以缓慢但是可以忍受的速度前进。
We will continue to experience considerable volatility in our annual results。 That's assured by the general volatility of the stock market； by the concentration of our equity holdings in just a few panies； and by certain business decisions we have made； most especially our move to mit large resources to super…catastrophe insurance。 We not only accept this volatility but wele it： A tolerance for short…term swings improves our long…term prospects。 In baseball lingo； our performance yardstick is slugging percentage； not batting average。
往后我们将会继续经历年度绩效的上下变动，面对多变的股市，这点绝对可以确定，尤其是我们将资金集中在几家主要的被投资公司之上，同时也因为我们将大部分的资源摆在超级意外险之上的商业决策，我们不但接受这种变动，而且相当能够接受，只要忍受短期变动的同时可以为我们带来长期的效果，套句棒球常用的术语，我们的表现主要是看长打率而不是打击率。
The Salomon Interlude所罗门插曲
Last June； I stepped down as Interim Chairman of Salomon Inc after ten months in the job。 You can tell from Berkshire's 1991…92 results that the pany didn't miss me while I was gone。 But the reverse isn't true： I missed Berkshire and am delighted to be back full…time。 There is no job in the world that is more fun than running Berkshire and I count myself lucky to be where I am。
去年六月，在接手十个月后，我正式辞去所罗门董事会临时主席的职务，大家可以从1991年到1992年Berkshire的经营绩效看出，公司并没有因为我暂时不在而发生任何差错，不过反过来说就不一定了，我很怀念Berkshire且很愿意再度回到公司担任全职工作，对我而言，世界上没有任何其它工作比起经营Berkshire更有乐趣，很庆幸我自己能够身处现在这个位置。
The Salomon post； though far from fun； was interesting and worthwhile： In Fortune's annual survey of America's Most Admired Corporations； conducted last September； Salomon ranked second among 311 panies in the degree to which it improved its reputation。 Additionally； Salomon Brothers； the securities subsidiary of Salomon Inc； reported record pre…tax earnings last year … 34％ above the previous high。
这次所罗门的任务虽然不是很愉快，但却相当有趣且值得，在去年九月财富杂志票选全美最受崇敬企业的年度调查中，所罗门在全部的311家公司中名列第二进步奖，此外所罗门兄弟…所罗门集团其下的证券子公司，其税前盈余更是创下之前历史新高34％之多。
Many people helped in the resolution of Salomon's problems and the righting of the firm； but a few clearly deserve special mention。 It is no exaggeration to say that without the bined efforts of Salomon executives Deryck Maughan； Bob Denham； Don Howard； and John Macfarlane； the firm very probably would not have survived。 In their work； these men were tireless； effective； supportive and selfless； and I will forever be grateful to them。
所罗门能够得到解救需要感谢许多人，其中有几位尤其要特别提到的，若是没有Deryck Maughhan、Bob Denham、Don Howard与John Macfarlane等人的通力合作，这家证券商很可能无法幸免，这些人努力不懈、有效率、无私奉献的精神，让我永远感佩他们。
Salomon's lead lawyer in its Government matters； Ron Olson of Munger； Tolles & Olson； was also key to our success in getting through this trouble。 The firm's problems were not only severe； but plex。 At least five authorities … the SEC； the Federal Reserve Bank of New York； the U。S。 Treasury； the U。S。 Attorney for the Southern District of New York； and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice … had important concerns about Salomon。 If we were to resolve our problems in a coordinated and prompt manner； we needed a lawyer with exceptional legal； business and human skills。 Ron had them all。
所罗门在政府事务方面的首席律师…Munger； Tolles&Olson联合律师事务所的Ron Olson也是这次问题能够顺利解决的核心人物，所罗门所面临的问题不但严重而且相当复杂，至少有五个主管机关…证管会、纽约联邦准备银行、美国财政部、纽约南区地方法院与司法部的反托拉斯部门都牵涉其中，若是我们想要以明快有组织性地解决这件事，我们绝对必须要有一位具有商务法律专业与沟通技巧的律师来帮忙，Ron正是具备有这样条件的最佳人选。
Acquisitions购并案
Of all our activities at Berkshire； the most exhilarating for Charlie and me is the acquisition of a business with excellent economic characteristics and a management that we like； trust and admire。 Such acquisitions are not easy to make but we look for them constantly。 In the search； we adopt the same attitude one might find appropriate in looking for a spouse： It pays to be active； interested and open…minded； but it does not pay to be in a hurry。
在Berkshire所有的活动中，最令查理跟我感到雀跃的是当我们找到同时具有超强产业竞争力并且还拥有我们信任与崇敬的经营者的那种企业，想要买到这类公司可不是件容易的事，但我们会一直努力寻找，而在寻找的过程当中，我们采取的就像是与一般人寻找终身伴侣一样相同的态度，当然积极、乐观与开放的态度是应该的，但绝对没有必要躁进。
In the past； I've observed that many acquisition…hungry managers were apparently mesmerized by their childhood reading of the story about the frog…kissing princess。 Remembering her success； they pay dearly for the right to kiss corporate toads； expecting wondrous transfigurations。 Initially； disappointing results only deepen their desire to round up new toads。 （〃Fanaticism；〃 said Santyana； 〃consists of redoubling your effort when you've forgotten your aim。〃） Ultimately； even the most optimistic manager must face reality。 Standing knee…deep in unresponsive toads； he then announces an enormous 〃restructuring〃 charge。 In this corporate equivalent of a Head Start program； the CEO receives the education but the stockholders pay the tuition。
过去我看过许多对于购并活动相当饥渴的经理人，很显然地可能是小时候青蛙王子的故事看太多了，脑中只记得那美丽的结局，他们很慷慨地花大笔的银子取得亲吻蟾蜍的机会，期望会有神奇的事情发生，而失望的结果往往只会让他们更积极地寻找下一次机会，（Santyana说：所谓的狂乐就是当你忘了目标何在时，还加倍投入你的心力），到最后即使是最乐观的经理人还是要被迫面对现实，深陷在一堆没有反应的蟾蜍当中，然后他会再大声地宣布将进行另一波的重整改造方案，在这种企业版的全新出击方案，CEO学到相当宝贵的教训，只不过学费却必须由股东们来出。
In my early days as a manager I； too； dated a few toads。 They were cheap dates … I've never been much of a sport … but my results matched those of acquirers who courted higher…priced toads。 I kissed and they croaked。
早年在我担任经理人时，也曾碰到几只蟾蜍，还好他们算是相当便宜的了，虽然我并没有那么积极，但所得到的结果与那些花高价追求蟾蜍的凯子经理人差不多，在亲了之后，它们还是依然聒聒叫。
After several failures of this type； I finally remembered some useful advice I once got from a golf pro （who； like all pros who have had anything to do with my game； wishes to remain anonymous）。 Said the pro： 〃Practice doesn't make perfect； practice makes permanent。〃 And thereafter I revised my strategy and tried to buy good businesses at fair prices rather than fair businesses at good prices。
在失败过几次之后，我终于想起我曾经从某位职业高尔夫选手的建议（�
