the works of edgar allan poe-1-第58章
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a boat。 This would naturally have been the case。 The corpse could not
have been trusted to the shallow waters of the shore。 The peculiar
marks on the back and shoulders of the victim tell of the bottom ribs
of a boat。 That the body was found without weight is also
corroborative of the idea。 If thrown from the shore a weight would
have been attached。 We can only account for its absence by supposing
the murderer to have neglected the precaution of supplying himself
with it before pushing off。 In the act of consigning the corpse to
the water； he would unquestionably have noticed his oversight； but
then no remedy would have been at hand。 Any risk would have been
preferred to a return to that accursed shore。 Having rid himself of
his ghastly charge； the murderer would have hastened to the city。
There； at some obscure wharf； he would have leaped on land。 But the
boat … would he have secured it？ He would have been in too great
haste for such things as securing a boat。 Moreover； in fastening it
to the wharf； he would have felt as if securing evidence against
himself。 His natural thought would have been to cast from him； as far
as possible； all that had held connection with his crime。 He would
not only have fled from the wharf； but he would not have permitted
the boat to remain。 Assuredly he would have cast it adrift。 Let us
pursue our fancies。 … In the morning； the wretch is stricken with
unutterable horror at finding that the boat has been picked up and
detained at a locality which he is in the daily habit of frequenting
… at a locality； perhaps； which his duty compels him to frequent。 The
next night； without daring to ask for the rudder； he removes it。 Now
where is that rudderless boat？ Let it be one of our first purposes to
discover。 With the first glimpse we obtain of it； the dawn of our
success shall begin。 This boat shall guide us； with a rapidity which
will surprise even ourselves； to him who employed it in the midnight
of the fatal Sabbath。 Corroboration will rise upon corroboration； and
the murderer will be traced。〃
＇For reasons which we shall not specify； but which to many readers
will appear obvious； we have taken the liberty of here omitting； from
the MSS。 placed in our hands； such portion as details the following
up of the apparently slight clew obtained by Dupin。 We feel it
advisable only to state； in brief； that the result desired was
brought to pass； and that the Prefect fulfilled punctually； although
with reluctance； the terms of his compact with the Chevalier。 Mr。
Poe's article concludes with the following words。 … Eds。 ｛*23｝＇
It will be understood that I speak of coincidences and no more。 What
I have said above upon this topic must suffice。 In my own heart there
dwells no faith in pr鎡er…nature。 That Nature and its God are two； no
man who thinks； will deny。 That the latter； creating the former； can；
at will； control or modify it； is also unquestionable。 I say 〃at
will；〃 for the question is of will； and not； as the insanity of logic
has assumed； of power。 It is not that the Deity cannot modify his
laws； but that we insult him in imagining a possible necessity for
modification。 In their origin these laws were fashioned to embrace
all contingencies which could lie in the Future。 With God all is Now。
I repeat； then； that I speak of these things only as of coincidences。
And farther： in what I relate it will be seen that between the fate
of the unhappy Mary Cecilia Rogers； so far as that fate is known； and
the fate of one Marie Rog阾 up to a certain epoch in her history；
there has existed a parallel in the contemplation of whose wonderful
exactitude the reason becomes embarrassed。 I say all this will be
seen。 But let it not for a moment be supposed that； in proceeding
with the sad narrative of Marie from the epoch just mentioned； and in
tracing to its d閚ouement the mystery which enshrouded her； it is my
covert design to hint at an extension of the parallel； or even to
suggest that the measures adopted in Paris for the discovery of the
assassin of a grisette； or measures founded in any similar
ratiocination； would produce any similar result。
For； in respect to the latter branch of the supposition； it should be
considered that the most trifling variation in the facts of the two
cases might give rise to the most important miscalculations； by
diverting thoroughly the two courses of events； very much as； in
arithmetic； an error which； in its own individuality； may be
inappreciable； produces； at length； by dint of multiplication at all
points of the process； a result enormously at variance with truth。
And； in regard to the former branch； we must not fail to hold in view
that the very Calculus of Probabilities to which I have referred；
forbids all idea of the extension of the parallel： … forbids it with
a positiveness strong and decided just in proportion as this parallel
has already been long…drawn and exact。 This is one of those anomalous
propositions which； seemingly appealing to thought altogether apart
from the mathematical； is yet one which only the mathematician can
fully entertain。 Nothing； for example； is more difficult than to
convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been
thrown twice in succession by a player at dice； is sufficient cause
for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the
third attempt。 A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the
intellect at once。 It does not appear that the two throws which have
been completed； and which lie now absolutely in the Past； can have
influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future。 The chance
for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary
time … that is to say； subject only to the influence of the various
other throws which may be made by the dice。 And this is a reflection
which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it
are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything
like respectful attention。 The error here involved … a gross error
redolent of mischief … I cannot pretend to expose within the limits
assigned me at present； and with the philosophical it needs no
exposure。 It may be sufficient here to say that it forms one of an
infinite series of mistakes which arise in the path or Reason through
her propensity for seeking truth in detail。
~~~ End of Text ~~~
FOOTNOTESMarie Rog阾
｛*1｝ Upon the original publication of 〃Marie Roget；〃 the foot…notes
now appended were considered unnecessary； but the lapse of several
years since the tragedy upon which the tale is based； renders it
expedient to give them； and also to say a few words in explanation of
the general design。 A young girl； Mary Cecilia Rogers； was murdered
in the vicinity of New York； and； although her death occasioned an
intense and long…enduring excitement； the mystery attending it had
remained unsolved at the period when the present paper was written
and published （November； 1842）。 Herein； under pretence of relating
the fate of a Parisian grisette； the author has followed in minute
detail； the essential； while merely paralleling the inessential facts
of the real murder of Mary Rogers。 Thus all argument founded upon the
fiction is applicable to the truth： and the investigation of the
truth was the object。 The 〃Mystery of Marie Roget〃 was composed at a
distance from the scene of the atrocity； and with no other means of
investigation than the newspapers afforded。 Thus much escaped the
writer of which he could have availed himself had he been upon the
spot； and visited the localities。 It may not be improper to record；
nevertheless； that the confessions of two persons； （one of them the
Madame Deluc of the narrative） made； at different periods； long
subsequent to the publication； confirmed； in full； not only the
general conclusion； but absolutely all the chief hypothetical details
by which that conclusion was attained。
｛*2｝ The nom de plume of Von Hardenburg。
｛*3｝ Nassau Street。
｛*4｝ Anderson。
｛*5｝ The Hudson。
｛*6｝ Weehawken。
｛*7｝ Pa
