the prince(王子)-第30章
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The previous suggestions； carefully observed； will enable a new prince
to appear well established； and render him at once more secure and fixed
in the state than if he had been long seated there。 For the actions of a new
prince are more narrowly observed than those of an hereditary one； and
when they are seen to be able they gain more men and bind far tighter than
ancient blood； because men are attracted more by the present than by the
past； and when they find the present good they enjoy it and seek no further；
they will also make the utmost defence of a prince if he fails them not in
other things。 Thus it will be a double glory for him to have established a
new principality； and adorned and strengthened it with good laws； good
arms； good allies； and with a good example； so will it be a double disgrace
to him who； born a prince； shall lose his state by want of wisdom。
And if those seigniors are considered who have lost their states in Italy
in our times； such as the King of Naples； the Duke of Milan； and others；
there will be found in them； firstly； one common defect in regard to arms
from the causes which have been discussed at length； in the next place；
some one of them will be seen； either to have had the people hostile； or if
he has had the people friendly； he has not known how to secure the nobles。
In the absence of these defects states that have power enough to keep an
army in the field cannot be lost。
Philip of Macedon； not the father of Alexander the Great； but he who
was conquered by Titus Quintius； had not much territory compared to the
greatness of the Romans and of Greece who attacked him； yet being a
warlike man who knew how to attract the people and secure the nobles； he
sustained the war against his enemies for many years； and if in the end he
lost the dominion of some cities； nevertheless he retained the kingdom。
Therefore； do not let our princes accuse fortune for the loss of their
principalities after so many years' possession； but rather their own sloth；
because in quiet times they never thought there could be a change （it is a
common defect in man not to make any provision in the calm against the
tempest）； and when afterwards the bad times came they thought of flight
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and not of defending themselves； and they hoped that the people；
disgusted with the insolence of the conquerors； would recall them。 This
course； when others fail； may be good； but it is very bad to have neglected
all other expedients for that； since you would never wish to fall because
you trusted to be able to find someone later on to restore you。 This again
either does not happen； or； if it does； it will not be for your security；
because that deliverance is of no avail which does not depend upon
yourself； those only are reliable； certain； and durable that depend on
yourself and your valour。
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CHAPTER XXV
WHAT FORTUNE CAN EFFECT IN HUMAN AFFAIRS AND
HOW TO WITHSTAND HER
It is not unknown to me how many men have had； and still have； the
opinion that the affairs of the world are in such wise governed by fortune
and by God that men with their wisdom cannot direct them and that no one
can even help them； and because of this they would have us believe that it
is not necessary to labour much in affairs； but to let chance govern them。
This opinion has been more credited in our times because of the great
changes in affairs which have been seen； and may still be seen； every day；
beyond all human conjecture。 Sometimes pondering over this； I am in
some degree inclined to their opinion。 Nevertheless； not to extinguish our
free will； I hold it to be true that Fortune is the arbiter of one…half of our
actions；＇*＇ but that she still leaves us to direct the other half； or perhaps a
little less。
＇*＇ Frederick the Great was accustomed to say： 〃The older one gets the
more convinced one becomes that his Majesty King Chance does three…
quarters of the business of this miserable universe。〃 Sorel's 〃Eastern
Question。〃
I compare her to one of those raging rivers； which when in flood
overflows the plains； sweeping away trees and buildings； bearing away the
soil from place to place； everything flies before it； all yield to its violence；
without being able in any way to withstand it； and yet； though its nature be
such； it does not follow therefore that men； when the weather becomes fair；
shall not make provision； both with defences and barriers； in such a
manner that； rising again； the waters may pass away by canal； and their
force be neither so unrestrained nor so dangerous。 So it happens with
fortune； who shows her power where valour has not prepared to resist her；
and thither she turns her forces where she knows that barriers and defences
have not been raised to constrain her。
And if you will consider Italy； which is the seat of these changes； and
which has given to them their impulse； you will see it to be an open
country without barriers and without any defence。 For if it had been
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defended by proper valour； as are Germany； Spain； and France； either this
invasion would not have made the great changes it has made or it would
not have come at all。 And this I consider enough to say concerning
resistance to fortune in general。
But confining myself more to the particular； I say that a prince may be
seen happy to…day and ruined to…morrow without having shown any
change of disposition or character。 This； I believe； arises firstly from
causes that have already been discussed at length； namely； that the prince
who relies entirely on fortune is lost when it changes。 I believe also that he
will be successful who directs his actions according to the spirit of the
times； and that he whose actions do not accord with the times will not be
successful。 Because men are seen； in affairs that lead to the end which
every man has before him； namely； glory and riches； to get there by
various methods； one with caution； another with haste； one by force；
another by skill； one by patience； another by its opposite； and each one
succeeds in reaching the goal by a different method。 One can also see of
two cautious men the one attain his end； the other fail； and similarly； two
men by different observances are equally successful； the one being
cautious； the other impetuous； all this arises from nothing else than
whether or not they conform in their methods to the spirit of the times。
This follows from what I have said； that two men working differently
bring about the same effect； and of two working similarly； one attains his
object and the other does not。
Changes in estate also issue from this； for if； to one who governs
