走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第88章
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world’s biggest importer of sugar since the breakup of the Soviet Union）。 Their clients are big players in the food industry； who know up to a year in advance how much sugar they’re going to need。 Now they can buy sugar futures in London or New York when prices are low enough。 They are going to need their trainloads of sugar many months from now； but meanwhile they hold sugar futures； which they plan to sell when they buy their cash position。 In effect； they are short cash； long futures。 If sugar prices go up and they have to pay more than expected； they will offset that loss by making roughly the same profit on their futures positions。
Their unhedged petitors are in effect flipping a coin。 If sugar prices fall； they’ll buy on the cheap and reap a windfall； but if they rise； they’ll be hung out to dry。 The importers who are hedged can concentrate on running their core business instead of watching the price ticker。
比如，我有2个朋友是莫斯科的经纪人，他们教白糖进口商如何对冲（俄罗斯自从苏联解体以后成为世界最大的白糖进口商）。他们的客户是食品工业的巨头，它们能提前一年知道自己要多少糖。现在，当价格很低时，他们可以在伦敦或纽约买白糖期货。这些糖用火车运载需要几个月，当他们有现金仓位时，他们可以卖出期货。实际上，他们在做空现金，做多期货。如果白糖的价格上涨，涨的比他们想象的多，他们会通过期货仓位的调整来弥补亏损。他们的竞争对手如果没有做对冲，只好扔硬币了。如果白糖下跌，他们就会低价买入，发顺风财；但是如果白糖上涨，他们就渴死了。进口商使用对冲就可以把精力放在自己的生意上面，而不是天天担心价格波动。
Producers of modities also benefit from hedging。 An agribusiness can presell its wheat； coffee； or cotton when prices are high enough to guarantee profits。 They sell short as many futures contracts as it takes to cover their prospective crop。 From that point on； they have no price risk。 If prices go down； they’ll make up their losses on cash modities by profits on futures。 If prices go up； they’ll lose money on their short positions in futures but make it back selling the actual modities。 Producers give up a chance of a windfall but insulate themselves from the risk of lower prices。 Survivors thrive on stability。 That why the Exxons； the Coca…Colas； and the Nabiscos are among the major players in the modity markets。 Hedgers are the ultimate insiders； and a good hedging department not only buys price insurance； but serves as a profit center。
商品生产商可以通过对冲收益。农业生产商可以在价格很高时提前卖出小麦，咖啡，或棉花，以保证利润。他们增产时就会尽力做空期货。从这个角度说，他们没有价格风险。如果价格下跌，期货的利润会弥补现金仓位。如果价格上涨，他们做空期货是亏钱的，但是他们的实物就可以赚到钱。生产商放弃了赚横财的机会，但是也避免了自己的产品价格下跌的风险。幸存者靠稳定生存。这就是为什么埃克森，可口可乐，纳贝斯克是最大的商品市场玩家。对冲者是永远的场内交易者，优秀的对冲部门不但要为价格买保险，还要为利润做贡献。
Speculators step in to assume market risks； lured by the glitter of profits。 Hedgers； with their inside information； are not fully confident about future prices； while crowds of cheerful outsiders plunk down money to bet on price direction。 It reminds me how； years ago； I walked into a liquor store with a scientist friend to buy some wine for dinner。 This was soon after the state of New Jersey introduced a lottery to pay for education。 There was a huge line at the counter； as lottery tickets in those days were sold only in liquor stores。 When my friend； who owned a house in New Jersey； saw what was happening； he doubled up laughing； “You mean these people are lining up to keep my taxes down？！” That’s pretty much what most speculators do in futures。
投机者被利润吸引，而进场承担风险。对冲者，根据自己内部的信息，一般不会对期货价格有信心，然而兴高采烈的场外大众拿很多钱来赌方向。这让我想起几年钱，我和一个科学家朋友去卖酒的地方为晚餐买点酒。这事发生在新泽西州采取了买彩票上学的措施之后。当时柜台前排队的人巨多，因为当时只有卖酒的地方才可以卖彩票。我的朋友在新泽西有房子，看到了这样的事后，他笑着说：“这么多人来排队是为了帮我减税吗？！”大部分期货投机者就是给别人送钱的。
The two largest groups of speculators are farmers and engineers。 Farmers produce modities； while engineers love to apply scientific methods to the market game。 Many small farmers enter futures markets as hedgers but catch the bug and start speculating。 There’s nothing wrong with that； as long as they know what they are doing。 It never ceases to amaze me how many farmers end up trading stock index futures。 As long as they trade corn； cattle； or soybeans； their feel for the fundamentals gives them an edge over city slickers。 But what’s their edge in the S&P 500？ Faster reflexes than the rest of us？ Gimme a break！
投机者的2大阵营是农民和工程师。农民生产商品，然而工程师喜欢用科学方法来玩市场游戏。很多小农民进入期货市场是为了做对冲，但是他们被吸引，开始做投机。如果他们知道自己在干什么，这并没什么错。让我吃惊的是，很多农民在交易股指期货。如果他们坚持交易玉米，牛，大豆，他们有生产经验，懂基本面，应该可以比城里人有优势。但是对于标准普尔500，他们有什么优势？能比我们还强？别扯淡了！
There is one profound difference between futures and stocks； making the futures game extremely fast； furious； exciting； and deadly。 The futures markets are turbocharged by a simple but potent device of low margin requirements。
期货和股票有一个重大的不同点，让期货游戏更快，更激烈，更激动，更致命。期货市场的高杠杆是简单有力的设备。
United States securities law demands that in the stock market you pay at least half the cash value of your position。 Your broker can give you a margin loan for the other half。 If you have 30；000 in your account； you may buy 60；000 worth of stocks； and no more。 The law was passed after the Crash of 1929 when people realized that low margins led to excessive speculation； which contributed to the viciousness of declines。 Prior to 1929； speculators could buy stocks on a 10％ margin； which worked great in bull markets but wiped them out in bear markets。
美国证券法规定，在股市，你至少付仓位一半的钱。你的经纪人可以为你的另一半钱提供保证金贷款。如果你的账户有30000，你想买价值60000甚至更贵的股票，你可以用保证金。在1929年股市大崩盘以后这个法律被通过了。当时人们意识到高杠杆导致过度投机，会导致可怕的崩跌。在1929年以前，投机者可以用10％的保证金买股票，在牛市作用巨大，在熊市就要被洗出局了。
Margins of only three to five percent are mon in the futures markets。 Here you can bet big with little money。 If you have 30；000； you can control 1；000；000 worth of merchandise； be it pork bellies or gold。 If you catch a 1％ move in your market； you’ll make 10；000； or over 30％ profit on your account。 A few trades like that； and you’ve made it。 A small trader looks at these numbers and thinks he’s found the secret to getting rich quick。 There is only one problem。 Before that market rises 1％ it may dip 2％。 It may be a meaningless blip； but at the bottom the amateur’s equity will be nearly wiped out； and his broker will sell him out on a margin call。 He’ll go bust even though his price forecast was correct。
在期货市场，只用3％——5％的保证金很正常。你可以用小钱大赌。如果你有30000元，你可以控制价值1000000元的商品，不管是猪肉，还是黄金。如果你抓住了市场的1％，你就赚了10000，或者是你账户30％的利润。如果这样交易几次，你就成功了。小交易者看着这些数字，它认为发现了致富的秘诀。还有一个问题。在上涨1％之前可能要下跌2％。也许这只是没有任何含义的小跌，但是业余选手的资金机会被洗光了，他的经纪人会催他补交保证金。即使他的预测正确，它也会出局。
The mortality rate among futures traders is over 90 percent； even though brokerage houses try to hide statistics。 Easy margins attract gamblers and adrenaline addicts who quickly go up in smoke。 There is nothing wrong with trading futures that money management won’t cure。 Futures are very tradable； as long as you observe money management rules and do not go crazy with an easy margin。 You have to be more than disciplined … to trade modities you must be colder than a freezer。 If you cannot follow money management rules； better go to Las Vegas。 The entertainment value is just as high and the oute is the same； but the drinks are free and the floor show more glitzy。
虽然期货经纪公司总是隐瞒统计数字，期货交易者的阵亡率还是超过了90％。高杠杆吸引了赌徒和追求刺激的人，他们很快就花成了烟。资金管理可以处理好期货交易的错误之处。只要你使用好资金管理原则，不滥用高杠杆，期货是很好�
